The United States has lost influence to China in Southeast Asia over the past five years in all four categories measured by the Asia Power Index: economic relationships, defence networks, diplomatic influence and cultural influence.
In terms of individual countries, the U.S. remains more influential than China in the Philippines and Singapore. In 2018, it also led China in Thailand, but in 2022, China pulled ahead and now leads the United States. Beijing's influence is strongest in Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, where geographical proximity and relatively weak US engagement have enabled China to outstrip Washington's influence by large margins.
China is more influential economically than the United States in terms of measures of influence. But Washington's defence networks continue to far outstrip those of Beijing.
China's diplomatic influence was greater than that of the U.S. in all countries in Southeast Asia in 2022. This reflects China's greater focus on the region, including through its diplomatic networks, foreign minister-level engagement, and involvement in regional institutions such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which was tracked as an individual indicator for this Snapshot.
When it comes to cultural influence, the United States remains at a slight advantage. But in 2022, its score declined in every country except Vietnam. The two countries hold different advantages. The U.S. has influence through the reach of its news agencies, newspapers and broadcasters. China's media influence is increasing but remains far below that of the United States in Southeast Asia. China, however, has greater people-to-people exchanges with Southeast Asia, as reflected in Asia Power Index data on diaspora and tourism connections.
Lowy Institute:Asia Power Snapshot: China and the United States in Southeast Asia